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Additional info for OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2
Countries enjoying a robust recovery can afford to reduce budget deficits faster than countries with more fragile recoveries. Also, if growth were to turn out markedly weaker than projected, the pace of consolidation could be moderated in those countries with reasonably sound public finances and credible mediumterm consolidation strategies. More generally, in such circumstances, the automatic stabilisers could also be allowed to operate around the planned consolidation path in countries that have not lost the confidence of financial markets.
Where there is insufficient information to determine the allocation of budget cuts, the presumption is that they apply equally to the spending and revenue sides, and are spread proportionally across components. These conventions, which differ from the practice in previous OECD fiscal projections, allow for needed consolidation in countries where plans have not been announced at a sufficiently detailed level to be incorporated in the projections. Along this line, the following assumptions were adopted (with additional adjustments if OECD and government projections for economic activity differ): u Lect r An ● For the United States, fiscal policy follows the Administration’s proposed budget in the August 2010 MidSession Review.
8 United States Japan Euro area OECD China -669 157 -100 -671 436 -378 142 -43 -220 297 -496 191 -26 -316 340 -559 219 42 -304 396 -587 221 121 -257 421 Other iindustrialised Oth d t i li d A Asia i 2 Russia Brazil Other oil producers Rest of the world Non-OECD World 95 102 -28 497 -194 907 237 135 49 -24 92 -85 464 244 69 84 -53 313 -3 750 434 65 59 -76 358 -1 801 497 60 49 -107 384 -6 801 544 $ billion Note: Regional aggregates include intra-regional trade. 1. Growth rates of the arithmetic average of import volumes and export volumes.